Monday, October 31, 2011

Libya: Sequence of events and who or what next

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image Rebels flash the V-sign for victory during celebrations in the newly named Martyr’s Square, formerly known as Green Square, after rebel forces overran Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s fortified Bab al-Azizya headquarters in the capital Tripoli, following h

The age-old Gaddafi regime is in the final days, if not already at the very end. The worst it can do is to cause more unnecessary deaths and destruction as the last desperate gasp. The house of cards built over 42 years is about to fall apart. The cocoon of absolute authority and invincibility is about to come crashing down, writes Omar Khasru

WHAT had started with the self-immolation of a young Tunisian street vendor in December 2010 to protest against the harassment and humiliation by municipal officials has resulted in the overthrow of two Arab dictators and the third one is on the brink. The act of Mohamed Bouazizi was the catalyst for the revolution and the ouster of Ben Ali from Tunisian presidency after 23 years of power, and the advent of Arab Spring.

This was followed by the ouster of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak. It sparked uprisings in Yemen, Bahrain, Libya and elsewhere. Gaddafi, the tyrannical Libyan ruler for 42 years, is about to be toppled and the presidents of Yemen and Syria are tottering.

The regime changes in the last two countries would seem only a matter of time. The Arab Spring would then complete the first phase. The hope is that democratic wind would blow freely in these countries after the long-awaited fall of the despicable despots.

As I watched the fast-track entrance of Libyan rebels into Tripoli on TV, I could not help but remember December 1971 in Dhaka. There are obvious differences in the two situations but also close similarities. The rebels entering Tripoli without much resistance from Gaddafi loyalists was similar to liberation fighters entering Dhaka with no serious challenge from the vaunted Pakistan army. The rumour earlier was rampant that the Pakistani troops would fight a stiff final battle. But they were war-weary, defeated, dispirited and had realised the futility of it all. They did not put up much of a fight.

The major resemblance also is in the significant and valuable support from dominant outside powers. In the case of Bangladesh, it was our big neighbour which eagerly offered assistance because independence of Bangladesh coincided with and advanced the strategic interests of India. In the case of Libyan freedom seekers, it is the NATO support and air strikes against Gaddafi troops and strategic spots. That enabled a ragtag band of Libyan rebels to organise and overrun the opposing troops in six months and enter Tripoli which it is about to capture. This is just as the Indian support had greatly hastened the process for Bangladesh.

The strongest similarity is the unfettered joy and spontaneous celebration of the common people in the new-found freedom, especially since both countries are unwavering testimony to the Martin Luther, Jr assertion that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be snatched by the oppressed. There is nothing like it and nothing else would give the people such complete, collective and unified feeling of ecstasy and thrill and a pure sense of ultimate triumph.

The struggle that will ensue in healing the wounds, national reconciliation, nation building, trial of war criminals and setting up a government that would give the highest priority to sustaining freedom, enhancing human rights and working towards peace, prosperity and progress of the country is monumental. The possible pitfalls, hiccups, discontent and failures would bring everyone down to harsh and stark reality. But that would all come later.

It is useful to present a short chronology of events that has resulted in a near outright victory of rebel forces in Libya. On February 14 of this year, three days after the overthrow of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, calls went out through the social media of web-based Facebook and mobile phones for peaceful demonstrations against Muammar Gaddafi. The Libyan leader, who has ruled over the country for more than four decades, had supported Mubarak during the Egyptian upheaval.

In response to the clarion call, about 200 demonstrators participated in the protest march in the coastal city of Benghazi on February 16. Several of them were arrested in fully expected harsh police action. A Libyan high official dismissed the incident as minor internecine skirmishes with ‘just young people fighting each other.’

For the rest of the seminal month, protests continued and turned violent and increasingly confrontational but the casualty toll was unclear. There were reports of bloody clashes in Benghazi, with soldiers firing tear gas and bullets. Witnesses said protests also erupted in other cities. Human Rights Watch reported that 84 people had been killed in Libyan demonstrations in February.

A few other notable events of the month were the resignation of Libya’s justice minister to protest the ‘use of excessive force’, Gaddafi declaring that he will never leave Libya and ‘will die as a martyr,’ the United Nations Security Council condemning repression against peaceful demonstrators and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deploring ‘egregious violations’ of human rights in Libya and the US president, Barack Obama, signing an executive order freezing Gaddafi’s assets.

Among a flurry of other actions last February were: UN Security Council imposing sanctions against Libya and referring Gaddafi to the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, the opposition movement announcing the former justice minister, Mustafa Abdul, Jalil as its leader, European Union banning sale of arms to Libya and freezing the assets of Gaddafi and his family.

The most notable event in March was the UN Security Council imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, with China, Russia, Germany, India and Brazil abstaining. It authorised all necessary measures to protect civilians. This gave green light to French, British and American military forces to begin immediate military operations. NATO eventually agreed to take command of the mission in place of individual countries and concerted NATO air strikes played a pivotal role in the eventual rebel success.

Also in March, a Libyan woman, Eman al-Obeidy, with bruises all over her body burst into a Tripoli hotel lobby claiming that Gaddafi’s militiamen had beaten and raped her. The government said that al-Obeidy was mentally ill. Later, the government changed its story and said the accused men were being investigated. At the end of the month, Libyan foreign minister Moussa Koussa arrived in London to announce that he had resigned.

In April, Gaddafi urged US President Obama to end the NATO bombing and stop what he called an ‘unjust war against a developing country,’ adding that the opposition were terrorists and members of al-Qaeda. In a speech, he exhorted NATO to end air strikes, accusing the international coalition of killing civilians and destroying the infrastructure in a bid to take over the oil fields. NATO missile attack killed one of Gaddafi’s sons and several of his grandchildren.

As NATO air strikes continued, the conflict between Gaddafi forces and rebels seemed to reach a stalemate in May and June. The European Union opened office in the rebel-held city of Benghazi. Several countries, including Spain and Germany, recognised the opposition National Transitional Council as Libya’s legitimate government. The country’s oil minister defected to Italy. South African President Jacob Zuma lashed out at NATO, accusing it of misusing UN resolution ‘for regime change, political assassinations and military occupation.’ International Criminal Court issued warrants against Gaddafi and his son Saif al-Islam for murder and persecution.

In July, United States and United Kingdom recognised the National Transitional Council as ‘the legitimate governing authority’ in Libya. The commander of Libya’s rebel army was assassinated in Benghazi under mysterious circumstances. The rebel forces claimed huge successes as the battles raged on.

Things seemed to deteriorate for the regime in the battlefield in early August as Gaddafi in a rambling speech urged Libyans to ‘pick up your weapons; go to the fight in order to liberate Libya inch by inch from the traitors.’ In mid-August, a NATO spokesman said that anti-Gaddafi forces had assuming control of the key approaches to Tripoli. A Gaddafi spokesman offered a differing opinion asserting that victory was imminent.

On August 18, the Libyan prime minister, al-Mahmoodi, declared that Libyan military was ‘powerful enough to finish this battle,’ at the same time calling for dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully rather than militarily. The next day, US officials said that Gaddafi was making preparations for a ‘last stand’ in Tripoli as NATO air campaign continued amidst reports of rebel advances.

Libyan rebels entered Tripoli on August 20 largely unopposed at the outskirts of the city. Libyan official spokesman rejected the rebel claim that Gaddafi was seeking safe haven, saying that neither he nor his family planned to leave the country. In an audio address on state television, Gaddafi called on Libyans to rally to the defence of Tripoli on August 21. The rebels declared, ‘Gaddafi is finished,’ while NATO said his regime was ‘crumbling.’

On August 22, a rebel spokesman said Libya is under the control of the opposition, but intense clashes still raged in parts of Tripoli. Gaddafi’s whereabouts were unknown. ‘The real moment of victory is when Gaddafi is captured,’ National Transitional Council chairman told reporters.

The overall situation is murky, somewhat confusing and unclear as is usually the case in the middle of claims and counter-claims without independent or reliable verification. The situation is ‘very fluid,’ US President Barack Obama said, ‘There remains a degree of uncertainty and there are still regime elements who pose a threat.’ ‘But this much is clear: the Gaddafi regime is coming to an end and the future of Libya is in the hands of its people,’ he added.

This much is clear. The age-old Gaddafi regime is in the final days, if not already at the very end. The worst it can do is to cause more unnecessary deaths and destruction as the last desperate gasp. The house of cards built over 42 years is about to fall apart. The cocoon of absolute authority and invincibility is about to come crashing down.

First Tunisia, followed by Egypt and now Libya, demonstrating the Arab spring is alive and kicking, kicking out the corrupt and power hungry oppressive dictators one at a time. What or who is next? Even with uncertain and questionable future for these countries, freedom-loving people everywhere can rejoice and sing the hymns of freedom.


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| Source: newagebd.com

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